Technological Singularity

What is technological singularity?

        Vernor Vinge coined the term "Technological Singularity" or "the Singularity" in 1986 with the publish of his book Marooned in Realtime. The idea was later developed in The Coming Technological Singularity in 1993. He believes that mankind will develop a superhuman intelligence before 2030. "Within thirty years, we will have the technological means to create superhuman intelligence. Shortly after, the human era will be ended. [...] I think it's fair to call this event a singularity. It is a point where our models must be discarded and a new reality rules. As we move closer and closer to this point, it will loom vaster and vaster over human affairs till the notion becomes a commonplace. Yet when it finally happens it may still be a great surprise and a greater unknown." He believes this may happen in four different ways:

• Scientists could develop advancements in artificial intelligence
• Computer networks might somehow become self-aware
• Computer/human interfaces become so advanced that humans essentially evolve into a new species
• Biological science advancements allow humans to physically engineer human intelligence

 Computers tend to double in power every two years or so. This trend is related to Moore's Law, which states that transistors double in power every 18 months. Vinge says that at this rate, it's only a matter of time before humans build a machine that can "think" like a human.

Ray Kurzweil believes that we're approaching a moment when computers will become intelligent, and not just intelligent but more intelligent than humans. When that happens, humanity — our bodies, our minds, our civilization — will be completely and irreversibly transformed. He believes that this moment is not only inevitable but imminent. According to his calculations, the end of human civilization as we know it is about 35 years away. There are a lot of theories about it. Maybe we'll merge with them to become super-intelligent cyborgs, using computers to extend our intellectual abilities the same way that cars and planes extend our physical abilities. Maybe the artificial intelligences will help us treat the effects of old age and prolong our life spans indefinitely. Maybe we'll scan our consciousnesses into computers and live inside them as software, forever, virtually. Maybe the computers will turn on humanity and annihilate us. The one thing all these theories have in common is the transformation of our species into something that is no longer recognizable as such to humanity circa 2011.

Can We Avoid Machines Taking Over?

In 1965 Gordon E. Moore, a semiconductor engineer, proposed what we now call Moore's Law. He noticed that as time passed the price of semiconductor components and manufacturing costs fell. Rather than produce integrated circuits with the same amount of power as earlier ones for half the cost, engineers pushed themselves to pack more transistors on each circuit. The trend became a cycle, which Moore predicted would continue until we hit the physical limits of what we can achieve with integrated circuitry.

Sources:

http://content.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,2048299,00.html

http://www.singularitysymposium.com/definition-of-singularity.html

http://electronics.howstuffworks.com/gadgets/high-tech-gadgets/technological-singularity.htm
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